Weekend Show – Mike Larson & Dana Lyons – Diversification! Here Are Sectors That Are Making Money Now
Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend’s Show we again feature two generalist investors to share where they are making money in the markets. Diversification is a major theme right now as a number of lagging sectors are playing catch up to the Magnificent 7.
Both of the guest have been playing these markets excellently over the past 3 years, which includes the bear market of 2022.
If you are looking for commentary on the Fed meeting this week, check out out Daily Editorials from Thursday and Friday.
We hope you all have a great weekend! For all the college basketball fans, enjoy the first weekend of March Madness 🙂
- Segment 1 and 2 – Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief at MoneyShow joins us to discuss the overall investment themes he is seeing in the markets and hearing at recent MoneyShow conferences. We focus on leading sectors, regional banks, commodities, including gold and energy, and Bitcoin.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share Pro, wraps up the show by sharing what areas he has positions in and the ones he is avoiding. Diversification is a major theme since so many sectors are trending higher. We look at growth vs value, gold, silver, GDX, copper miners, oil, nat gas, uranium and bonds.
Hey there DT. Agreed on Montage Gold, and I’ve got a position in it, and was thrilled to see MAU more than double in the recent past on the nice rerating on their over 4+ million ounces of gold. Yes, agreed that it is nice to see the Lundin Group in for 19.9% stake, but also there is Perseus Mining with a 13.8% stake, Barrick with 6.5% stake, and Endeavour Mining with a 2.8% stake. Their Kone’ project is going to be an economic mine one day, and those stakeholders all know it.
This is a prime example of a gold developer that has defined a solid project, grown in value by acquiring more land to add in a higher-grade area to the front end of the mine production scenario (making their recent economic studies that much more compelling).
Also importantly for investors to consider: Their ounces in the ground were just rerated higher as gold prices have broken higher. I was just commenting to some of our newsletter writer guests off-mic in conversations as we looked at a number of advanced explorers and developers that the valuation for their ounces in the ground was down to silly levels, like most other projects in the sector and these things are going to eventually get rerated higher.
Well, Montage just popped up and doubled in value in the last few weeks, and think it is a shot across the bow for what is about to happen to many other companies that have good projects, good economics, and have ounces in the ground trading for a fraction of what they will be valued at as this next leg of the bull cycle plays out. We are going to see more and more of these kernels of value in good projects pop and pop and pop, as the sentiment starts to improve and as metals prices run higher and higher.
Where are these projects going to be valued at $2300 gold, $2400 gold, $2500 gold…?
Just as a heads up, I released a new article to my Substack subscribers yesterday, and I actually ended the article with Montage Gold’s chart and some of the points just made above, as well as highlighting some of other gold and silver stocks that have really been moving over the last 1-2 years, despite the tough market.
Some of the companies I mentioned that have gone up multiple fold have also been in West Africa, Nicaragua, and Mexico, so investors limiting their selections to just Canada and the USA are missing tons of solid opportunities in the broader PM sector.
Often the companies in other jurisdictions have way more than priced in their jurisdiction risk, and even then are trading at ridiculous valuations. Conversely many of the jurisdictions outside of North America have also been getting more traction (in a sort of stealth way), as so many North American newsletter writers snub their nose at other jurisdictions thinking they are playing it safe for their subscribers.
The last few M&A deals in the sector have been Osino Resources being taken over by a superior counter offer from the Yintai Gold Co (outbidding Dundee Precious Metals) for their project in Namibia, Africa, and Silvercorp and Perseus Mining in a bidding war to acquire OreCorp’s project in Tanzania, Africa.
People say silly things all the time like: “Wouldn’t it be great if we started seeing some bidding wars again on projects….” The reality is there have been 2 bidding wars going on just recently for gold development projects, but they aren’t in Canada or the US. Many North American investors are shooting themselves in the foot having such a narrow scope of vision to only the US and Canada. We also saw a bidding war for Guyana Goldfields by Silvercorp, that was then outbid by Zijin Mining for their project in Guyana, South America. One of my favorite older gold producers/developers was Roxgold, and they got nabbed by Fortuna Silver for their projects in West Africa, and then Fortuna also more recently acquired another West African gold development project from Chesser Resources. There were also bidding wars for some of the Australian and South American lithium companies, and speaking of Lundin Mining earlier, they acquired a number of the copper projects along that big belt in Chile over the last few years.
It’s a big world out there and some of the better projects out there are not domestic ones.
Here’s a link to my recent article on Substack, where I start off with the technical set up in Gold and Silver, and their wild pop earlier this week, and then the technical setup in GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ.
After that I highlight some of the gold & silver stocks that have been trending higher, despite the tough market, like Alamos Gold (AGI), Calbre Mining (CXB) (CXBMF), Galiano Gold (GAU), Gatos Silver (GATO), and Montage Gold (MAU) (MAUTF).
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Gold And Silver Popped – Now What About Your PM Stocks?
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – 03-22-2024
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/gold-and-silver-popped-now-what-about
GREAT………..” Look at that ugly red candle drop in silver on the 15-minute chart the morning of March 21st, dropping from $25.77 down to $24.82 in a matter of minutes!”
Silver has a lot of work to do…. JMO…
Silver is cheap, at the coin shops… just a note…
Thanks OOTB. Yeah, Silver really got monkey-hammered to kick things off on Thursday morning, after such a nice run in overseas trading up to $25.98 the prior evening. Now it closed the week back down below $25 again. Yes, agreed, it still has a lot of work to do to get through $26 resistance, and then the $29-$30 major resistance zone. I believe we’ll see Silver punch through $30 eventually, and that will be the fuse that lights the real fire in the PM equities.
Hi Jerry and Ex, sometimes I think that technology has moved so far so fast that our leaders could build a robot that looks like someone who is in power, but it would be lifelike enough to fool the populace into believing it is the real thing, that it is human. (especially if you want to keep someone in power) Eventually it won’t matter because we will have gone too far. DT
Easy to produce an intelligent robot but very difficult to make a dumbass one like Joe Biden.
Hi DT. Yeah, I don’t think lookalike robot doubles in the future are that far of a stretch, or that people would misuse them for their own means or to control. Robotics is going to continue being a big megatrend.
Hello DT……..”useless” eaters……. Hi Tech…….. Robots just consume WD40… lol………
Copper @ US$4.00 appears to be an interesting price level going back 20 years. Surprisingly, the pitchfork from Jan2016 just might be a viable predictor of future Cu29 price ranges and volatilty.
The log version of that chart shows 4.20 as important resistance next week:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p92088596966&a=1638725405
False breakdown in PAAS cannot be ruled out
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p57737198307&a=1638729461&r=1711224711336&cmd=print
I expect (well hope) for a bidding war with G2 in Guyana next year. That high grade must be of interest for more than Anglo Ashanti. I keep telling myself that anyway.
PM equities are mess. I’m staying away until there’s confirmation of major upward thrust
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=M&yr=15&mn=9&dy=6&id=p56606326406&a=1638943357&r=1711291553850&cmd=print
In my opinion it’s the very short term picture that looks the riskiest for many gold stocks. AEM for example just might confirm a double top soon:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62796561659&a=1510798624
Most weekly charts look good enough to keep any short term pullback to a minimum, at least timewise.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p22529917505&a=1626003689
The monthly picture looks great and I doubt that the final week of this month will change that.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74319050001&a=1639193886&r=1711336507428&cmd=print
Thanks Matthew. I’ve money ready to deploy but I’m just not feeling this action in PM stocks.
Looks like Silvercorp may be outbid again on recent buyout offer.
Yes, with regards to the potential takeover of OreCorp, both Silvercorp and Perseus have been going back and forth on this for months now, and both have equity stakes in the company and both have made official takeover offers. As a Silvercorp shareholder, I was hoping they’d get the property, but their offer expired this last Friday on March 22nd.
The most recent news update I’ve seen out of Silvercorp was on the 14th that stated:
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“Silvercorp notes that as of market close on Thursday March 14, 2024 the Silvercorp Offer has an implied value of A$0.60 per OreCorp share. This represents a 9% premium to the Perseus Mining Limited offer. Silvercorp encourages all OreCorp shareholders to accept the Silvercorp Offer without delay.”
“In the event that the 50.1% minimum acceptance condition is not met, Silvercorp will return all shares tendered already back to OreCorp shareholders when the Silvercorp Offer closes.”
“Silvercorp further notes that Perseus has yet to announce that it has received merger approval for the acquisition of control of OreCorp from the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission (“FCC”), a key condition to its offer. Silvercorp reminds OreCorp shareholders that it has received such FCC approval, which removes an element of uncertainty that remains attached to the Perseus offer.”
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The Perseus offer was not at as big of a premium as the Silvercorp offer, but it contained a 100% cash offer component, which may have been more attractive to many OreCorp shareholders that were considering the Silvercorp offer. The Silvercorp transaction was more share-based, but had a partial cash component included (0.0967 common shares of Silvercorp and A$0.19 cash per OreCorp share.) However Perseus updated their offer on March 20th last week to A$.575 per share.
At this point, it looks like the Silvercorp offer expired last week on Friday, without meeting the 50.1% minimum acceptance level; or at least there was not any press release suggesting that level had been met. As a result, things will likely now default over to the updated Perseus offer at less of a premium, but with a 100% cash component.
On March 20th this news was posted to the OreCorp Limited (ASX:ORR) website. (OreCorp) advises that it has received a conditional proposal from Perseus Mining Limited (ASX/TSX: PRU) (Perseus) to increase the offer consideration under its existing off-market takeover bid1 under Chapter 6 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) to A$0.575 per OreCorp Share (Amended Proposal).
It is just nice to see some bidding wars lately for the African assets like Orecorp, or also with Osino that had the 2nd outsized bid come in from a Chinese group to beat out Dundee PMs offer.
–> Hopefully we’ll see more of that kind bidding wars situation on future takeover offers in the sector, as that will help to get the animal spirits really going again.
Perseus increased their offer and convinced the 2 largest shareholders of OreCorp to vote for the offer; Silvercorp has until March 27 to respond with counteroffer. Article seemed confident OreCorp to go with Persius . Silvercorp keeps tryin’
Thanks Badgermom. Yes, I see that now that “OreCorp has received statements of intent from major OreCorp Shareholders in aggregate holding approximately 15.6% of OreCorp Shares.” Yes, it looks like things are going to Perseus, as I’d be very surprised to see Silvercorp come back and make an even larger offer at this point by next Wednesday, especially when their last offer didn’t get over 50% of the votes.
When Silvercorp tried to acquire Guyana Goldfields, a few years back, and then Zijin Mining came in to outbid them, they didn’t make a higher counteroffer, and just kept the millions of dollars in the break fees, because they were further along when the counteroffer came in.
I do find it weird that whenever Silvercorp has tried to acquire some projects, these other companies come in to outbid them. That tells me the projects that Silvercorp is looking at are at good values and other companies see that as well. Eventually SVM will make an acquisition though as they’ve been on the prowl the last few years. They also have 4 incubator projects in South America, where it may just make sense to acquire one of those and roll it up into Silvercorp if the projects have merit.
I-80(IAU) was down 7% Friday. One podcast guest said that for every $1.00 spent on drilling, they spend $ 0.75 on G&A. Is this abnormally high for G&A?
I’d be curious to see the math on that calculation from that podcast guest, as that doesn’t sound right. Yes, that would be high, but it also seems unlikely and hard to believe, and ignores the reality that they are a development and production company now too, not just an explorer.
On the exploration front, they have drilled a ton the last couple years at their 3 gold projects and their larger polymetallic project, and spent orders of magnitude more on that than they did on G&A. They’ve also put money that was raised previously into mine development, metallurgical testing, mining equipment, and they are now producing gold from Granite Creek and shipping ore over to Nevada Gold Mines processing center. They are generating revenues now that will mostly cover most of their G&A.
To assume anything not used on drilling went to G&A would be a fallacy, as they are deploying funds in many different areas for a lot of the development work and data needed to work towards economic studies. This would all be above and beyond the capital used for just the drilling, so the calculation on the ratio used for both by this pundit was likely biased and bogus.
https://tinyurl.com/333dnv54
Gold Week : Pull Back
Run, Wiley, Run!
https://tinyurl.com/5yrybvek
NatGas Week : Deeper?
Golden C Retest?
The price of Gold went up $140 in one week and nobody noticed, Nobody Cares! That is very bullish for the precious metals a contrarian’s dream come true. Once Siver hits $26 it could run quickly to $30. The silver stocks will go snake! Are You Ready, Freddy! Remember to take some money off the table when the next run that is about to happen comes. I don’t want to hear, OH GOD, my stocks went down after they went up! LOL! DT😉
Karora Resources Reports Record Production, Revenue, and Cash Flow For 2023
March 22, 2024
“2023 production was a record 160,492 ounces, increased 20% from 133,887 ounces for 2023, driven by a 37% increase gold produced from the Beta Hunt Mine. The Company exceeded 2023 production guidance of 145,000 – 160,000 ounces.”
“Cash operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) per ounce sold averaged US$1,128 and US$1,248, respectively, in 2023.”
This is a stunning drill intercept; Awale Resources Ltd. (ARIC) hits 45.7 g/t AU over 32 metres within 26 g/t Gold over 57 metres. DT
Amazing news. I like Orecap for exposure to both Awale Resources and American Eagle Gold.
New position AbraSilver(ABBRF) @ $.2152
+1 Nicely done Marty.
AbraSilver is a dog, they will need to raise money soon and have a $7M land payment due next year and half, dilution unless silver can break out above $26.
AbraSilver is not a “dog” by any stretch, and has defined one of the larger undeveloped silver resources in the sector (at 258 million ounces), and just found the new higher-grade JAC Zone over the last year and half that totally changes the development plans as it is now going to be the new starter pit. Additionally, they also had some success testing other newer targets at Alpaca, Fantasma, and the brand new JAC North area.
They literally just outlined their PFS economics today, which are fantastic… (dogs don’t have numbers like these):
“494 million after-tax Net Present Value discounted at 5% per annum (“NPV5%”),at base-case metal prices, with an after-tax Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) of 25.6% and payback of 2.4 years. At current spot prices an after-tax NPV5% of $661 million with an IRR of 30.3% and payback of 2.1 years ”
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Yes, any and all pre-revenue companies will have to do periodic raises, so they are not an exception there, but the question is can they build value with the money raised and associated dilution. The team at AbraSilver have shown repeatedly over the last few years that they can do just that.
The derogatory “dog” label should be left for penny dreadfuls without any drill success, that don’t have world-class assets, that don’t have robust economic studies, that didn’t build value with past raises, and that don’t have a prayer or raising anytime soon. There are hundreds and hundreds of companies out there that fit that bill, but AbraSilver is not one of them.
Calling one of these explorers a dog, he’d be more right than wrong most of the time.
I hear ya Terry, and mentioned in my response back that there were hundreds of penny dreadful explorers that qualified for “dog” status, but definitely not a company that has defined 258 million ounces of silver equivalent, a new high-grade starter pit area, and that just released robust economics via a PFS, like AbraSilver.
There are few silver explorers even in the same league here – mainly Vizsla (325 million ounces of silver equivalent) and Dolly Varden (140+ million ounces of silver equivalent). There is Discovery Silver with the 493 million ounces of silver, but at a lower grade and 302 million ounces of silver in reserves, but if one factors in the lead and zinc they’ve got over a billion ounces of silver equivalent. The point being there aren’t many silver explorers with 250+ million ounces of silver eq. and robust economics in place, and surely nobody in their right mind would consider such an achievement a “dog”.
It’s not a helpful expression and better not used, even though one might think it.
Hi Ex, I like Montage Gold as you know, you cover a lot of companies operating in West Africa that could be takeover candidates, now with The Lundin’s in Montage Gold it looks like a real winner. Follow the Money! DT